Speculation is a poor basis for an investment strategy, unless the investment vehicle is an ETF. Hmmm. If you want a slightly more informed base for deciding for yourself, take a look at the latest academic debate, as detailed by the FT at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/81e72800-28c2-11dc-af78-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=d8e9ac2a-30dc-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html